Atlantic Tropical Outlook
Pacific Tropical Outlook
Tropical Atlantic Infrared Satellite Loop
Eastern Pacific Infrared Satellite Loop
Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 231745
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90):
An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles southwest
off the coast of western Africa is gradually becoming better
defined, and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity has
increased since yesterday. This system could become a short-lived
tropical depression on Thursday or Friday while it moves
northwestward to northward. However, strong upper-level winds
should end the opportunity for development by the weekend.
Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of
this system as gusty winds, areas of heavy rain and flash flooding
is possible there by Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
Central Subtropical Atlantic (Former Tropical Storm Fay):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased with the remnants of
Fay located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores. While
environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for
development, this system could become a tropical depression again
today or tonight if the current thunderstorm activity persists.
The system is forecast to move westward during the next couple of
days, and by the weekend upper-level winds should inhibit formation
chances.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
$$
Forecaster Blake
Summary for Tropical Depression Fay (AT1/AL062026)
...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RE-DEVELOPS INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY... As of 9:00 PM GMT Wed Sep 23 the center of Fay was located near 30.1, -39.2 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tropical Depression Fay Public Advisory Number 15
Issued at 900 PM GMT Wed Sep 23 2026 392 WTNT31 KNHC 232034 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fay Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 PM GMT Wed Sep 23 2026 ...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RE-DEVELOPS INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY... SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.1N 39.2W ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fay was located near latitude 30.1 North, longitude 39.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next couple of days, but gradual weakening should occur thereafter. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Katz/Pasch
Tropical Depression Fay Forecast Advisory Number 15
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 23 2026 391 WTNT21 KNHC 232034 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 2100 UTC WED SEP 23 2026 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 39.2W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 39.2W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 38.8W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.9N 40.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 29.9N 41.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 29.9N 42.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 29.7N 43.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 29.5N 44.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 29.5N 45.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.1N 39.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KATZ/PASCH
Tropical Depression Fay Forecast Discussion Number 15
Issued at 900 PM GMT Wed Sep 23 2026 000 WTNT41 KNHC 232035 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 PM GMT Wed Sep 23 2026 Convection has redeveloped around the center of Fay and has persisted during the day. An earlier ASCAT pass indicated that the system still had a well-defined circulation. Therefore, Fay meets the criteria to be classified as a tropical cyclone again. The earlier ASCAT pass showed a maximum wind vector of around 31 kt and the most recent TAFB Dvorak classification was at T1.5/25 kt. Based on the given data, Fay's intensity is estimated to be 30 kt. The cyclone is moving just a little south of due west, or around 260/8 kt, as it moves to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge to the northwest. Fay is expected to continue on this general motion for the next several days. The current NHC track forecast is in line with the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids. There is a brief opportunity for Fay to regain tropical storm status during the next day or so, however wind shear is expected to increase again after 36 h. This should lead to the cyclone gradually weakening again, with the system becoming a post-tropical remnant low by 60 h, and then dissipating around 96 h, as suggested by simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF global model. The current NHC intensity forecast track is in line with both the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 30.1N 39.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 29.9N 40.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 29.9N 41.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 29.9N 42.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 29.7N 43.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 29.5N 44.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1800Z 29.5N 45.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz/Pasch
Tropical Depression Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 23 2026 000
FONT11 KNHC 232035
PWSAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
2100 UTC WED SEP 23 2026
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER KATZ/PASCH
Tropical Depression Fay Graphics
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 23 Sep 2026 21:22:54 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231732
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 23 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Polo, located a couple of hundred miles offshore of southwestern
Mexico, on Hurricane Odalys, located well west-southwest of the
southern tip of Baja California, and on Tropical Depression
Fifteen-E, located a few hundred miles south of the Big Island of
Hawaii.
South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
An area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days to
the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, environmental
conditions should be favorable for gradual development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next
week as the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward,
parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen-E are issued under
WMO header WTPA32 PHFO and under AWIPS header TCPCP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen-E are issued
under WMO header WTPA22 PHFO and under AWIPS header HFOTCMCP2.
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Zelinsky
Summary for Hurricane Odalys (EP1/EP162026)
...ODALYS STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES EASTWARD... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 23 the center of Odalys was located near 15.5, -127.2 with movement E at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
Hurricane Odalys Public Advisory Number 15
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 23 2026 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 232050 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Odalys Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 23 2026 ...ODALYS STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES EASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 127.2W ABOUT 1235 MI...1990 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Odalys was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 127.2 West. Odalys is moving toward the east near 7 mph (11 km/h). An eastward to east-northeastward motion at a slightly slower speed is expected for the next couple of days, followed by a gradual turn toward the northeast then north later this week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next day or two, followed by a weakening trend late this week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pierce/Zelinsky
Hurricane Odalys Forecast Advisory Number 15
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 23 2026 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 232050 TCMEP1 HURRICANE ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026 2100 UTC WED SEP 23 2026 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 127.2W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 100SW 110NW. 4 M SEAS....210NE 270SE 150SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 127.2W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 127.5W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.8N 126.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.4N 124.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.3N 123.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.1N 123.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.1N 122.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.2N 122.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 22.5N 121.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 22.5N 121.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 127.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PIERCE/ZELINSKY
Hurricane Odalys Forecast Discussion Number 15
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 23 2026 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 232053 TCDEP1 Hurricane Odalys Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 23 2026 Odalys' convective organization has not changed much in the past several hours. However, the hurricane continues to produce very deep convection near the center, with cloud-top temperatures as cold as -90 C. The subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB came in at 4.0/65 kt, and objective estimates of DMINT and ADT from UW-CIMSS showed values of 68 and 72, respectively. Given these data and the deeper convection, the initial intensity is raised to 70 kt. Multiple microwave imagery passes helped refine the position for Odalys, requiring an amendment of the best track a bit to the south. The initial motion is estimated to be about 85/6 kt. Odalys is being steered by the flow between a mid- to upper-level trough to its northwest and a ridge extending southwestward from central Mexico. The hurricane is forecast to turn toward the northeast and then north, on the southeastern side of the trough in the next day or so. Beyond day 3, the steering pattern becomes ill-defined, and potential interaction with Hurricane Polo could complicate the track of Odalys late in the forecast period. There is considerable uncertainty at this time as the spread of the model envelope is much larger than normal. The updated NHC track forecast is near the previous advisory, and lies near the reliable HCCA and GDMI forecast guidance. For the next 48 h, Odalys is forecast to remain in a favorable environment that may allow it to strengthen or at least maintain its intensity. After that, the cyclone will move into an environment of stronger westerly vertical wind shear, lowered SSTs, and dry mid-level air. These environmental conditions will induce a steady weakening trend. The official intensity forecast closely follows HCCA and GDMI, and aligns with the previous NHC advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 15.5N 127.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 15.8N 126.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 16.4N 124.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 17.3N 123.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 18.1N 123.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 19.1N 122.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 20.2N 122.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 22.5N 121.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 22.5N 121.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pierce/Zelinsky
Hurricane Odalys Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 23 2026 000
FOPZ11 KNHC 232050
PWSEP1
HURRICANE ODALYS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162026
2100 UTC WED SEP 23 2026
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODALYS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9)
25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
15N 125W 34 71 11(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82)
15N 125W 50 2 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
15N 125W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5)
$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/ZELINSKY
Hurricane Odalys Graphics
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 23 Sep 2026 21:34:35 GMT
Summary for Hurricane Polo (EP2/EP172026)
...POLO NOW MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST... ...OUTER RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM CST Wed Sep 23 the center of Polo was located near 15.7, -102.4 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 932 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.
Hurricane Polo Public Advisory Number 13
Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Sep 23 2026 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 232048 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Polo Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 300 PM CST Wed Sep 23 2026 ...POLO NOW MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST... ...OUTER RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 102.4W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southwestern Mexico coast should continue to monitor the progress of this system as additional watches and warnings could be necessary later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 102.4 West. Polo is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Thursday. A general west-northwestward motion is forecast on Friday and over the weekend. On the forecast track, the core of Polo is expected to be near the coast of southwestern Mexico through Thursday morning before it moves farther out to sea. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Polo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 932 mb (27.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area along the coast of Mexico this afternoon and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the coast of Mexico late tonight and on Thursday. RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches across coastal portions of the Mexican state of Guerrero through Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is possible in coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through Thursday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Polo are expected to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip current conditions, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Hurricane Polo Forecast Advisory Number 13
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 23 2026 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 232048 TCMEP2 HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026 2100 UTC WED SEP 23 2026 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 102.4W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 932 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 35SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 55SE 55SW 45NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 4 M SEAS....150NE 210SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 102.4W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 102.1W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.2N 103.4W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 55SE 50SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.7N 105.0W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 55NE 55SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.9N 106.9W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 55NE 55SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.2N 108.9W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.7N 110.6W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.9N 112.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 22.2N 113.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 24.3N 113.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 102.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 24/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Hurricane Polo Forecast Discussion Number 13
Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Sep 23 2026 936 WTPZ42 KNHC 232049 TCDEP2 Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 300 PM CST Wed Sep 23 2026 Satellite imagery this afternoon suggests that Polo seems to be at or near the end of its eyewall replacement cycle, as the eyewall cloud tops have gotten colder during the past several hours, and the eye is gradually becoming more distinct. The various satellite intensity estimates are lower than they were six hours ago, but they are no longer falling. The initial intensity is lowered to 125 kt, and for the moment that could still be a little generous. The hurricane's outer rainbands continue to affect the coast of Mexico. The hurricane is now moving faster toward the northwest at 310/6 kt. Water vapor imagery suggests a mid-level ridge is building over Texas and northern Mexico, and the dynamical models forecast this ridge to build westward to the north of Polo starting on Thursday as an upper-level trough near Baja California weakens and lifts out. This evolution should result in Polo moving northwestward for 12 h or so, followed by a west-northwestward motion with some increase in forward speed. There have been changes in the forecast guidance since the last advisory for the forecast period after 60 h. The cluster of models that was forecasting a northward motion has shifted a touch to the west, while the cluster that was forecasting a more northwestward motion has shifted more northward. So, while there is still spread and uncertainty, the guidance is a little more clustered than before. The biggest changes are the ECMWF and the UKMET, which are now part of the northward moving cluster. The new forecast track for this period follows the northward cluster to a position west of Baja California by 120 h. Overall, the new track is similar to the previous track through 72 h and a little west of the previous track after that. The intensity guidance continues to suggest a little decrease in intensity during the next 12-24 h followed by slight strengthening. However, since Polo is completing its eyewall replacement, it is possible that intensification could occur at any time. So, the new intensity forecast now shows re-intensification during the next 24 h. After 48 h, the environment gradually becomes less favorable due to slightly stronger shear and the possibility of some dry air entrainment. The guidance forecasts slow weakening during this time, and the new intensity forecast follows suit. The new forecast is again near the upper edge of the guidance for the first 60 h and then lies closer to the middle of the guidance envelope. While the center of Polo is forecast to remain offshore, outer rainbands should spread across southwestern Mexico during the next day or so, producing areas of heavy rain and tropical-storm-force winds. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 2. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for portions of southwestern Mexico from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect west of that to Playa Perula. Interests in these areas should closely monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 15.7N 102.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 16.2N 103.4W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 16.7N 105.0W 135 KT 155 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 16.9N 106.9W 135 KT 155 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 17.2N 108.9W 130 KT 150 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 17.7N 110.6W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 18.9N 112.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 22.2N 113.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 24.3N 113.4W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
Hurricane Polo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 23 2026 000
FOPZ12 KNHC 232048
PWSEP2
HURRICANE POLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
2100 UTC WED SEP 23 2026
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125
KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11)
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 27(31)
P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11)
P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26)
LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
LORETO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10)
15N 105W 34 X 13(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 3(25) X(25)
20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 76(84) 2(86) 1(87)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 56(57) 2(59) X(59)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 3(37) X(37)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11)
ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) 3(26)
20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6)
20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 26(41)
25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15)
25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Hurricane Polo Graphics
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 23 Sep 2026 21:40:33 GMT