244
FXUS62 KMFL 232134
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
534 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 517 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026
- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected again
today. Rain chances remain elevated through Friday before
falling this weekend.
- Heavy downpours from the stronger showers and thunderstorms
could lead to localized flooding over the urban and poor
drainage areas each day.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 517 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026
A rather complex mesoscale environment has evolved across South
Florida today. The combination of a mid-level impulse east of the
peninsula and a surface disturbance over the Keys supported numerous
showers and storms through the early morning hours over the east
coast metros, particularly across Miami-Dade and Broward.
Southerly flow aloft pushed the associated upper-level cloud cover
northward, resulting in generally overcast conditions and
limiting daytime heating across most of the South Florida
peninsula. This effectively suppressed any subsequent convective
activity across most of our region through this afternoon, with
the bulk of the activity associated with the low/mid-level
disturbance remaining south/east of the peninsula and over the
adjacent Atlantic waters. A few showers and storms have pushed
through the Lake region and SW Florida this afternoon, but
overall activity is expected to continue to diminish overnight. A
weak frontal boundary approaching from the north is expected to
reach the Lake region by tomorrow morning. There remains some
uncertainty regarding the exact timing of this frontal passage
over our region, but most guidance indicates that the front will
have moved through the peninsula by Friday. Shower and
thunderstorm coverage tomorrow will largely depend on how quickly
drier air behind the front is able to filter into our region.
Current PoPs for tomorrow are generally at around 30-40%, favoring
the eastern half of the peninsula under prevailing northwesterly
flow. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid-to-upper
70s along the coasts to the low 70s over the interior.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 122 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026
The actively wet pattern is expected to last for another day before
we start to see some drier air approach the area. Latest upper
level analysis depicts South Florida sitting on the downstream
side of an upper level shortwave trough located over the Gulf.
This upper level shortwave is expected to provide some increased
jet stream dynamics and pulses of positive vorticity advection
that will be favorable for the development of more scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms today. This is also supported
by continual southerly low level flow, causing more deep moisture
advection to occur. This brisk southerly flow could result in a
pinned Atlantic sea breeze as well, which can create more
potential for flooding concerns across the east coast metro areas.
PWATs remain above 2.1- 2.4 inches, which is above the 90th
percentile for this time of year. This amount of moisture will
make it easier for any level of forcing to produce scattered to
numerous showers and storms.
With all of the aforementioned information above, there will once
again be a risk for localized urban and poor drainage flooding today
across the east coast metro areas due to plentiful antecedent
rainfall the last couple of days. The current 3-hour flash flood
guidance currently sits between 2-4 inches of rain across Southeast
Florida, which can be achieved rather quickly as we have often seen
here. Therefore, while not a widespread risk, there remains an
outside chance for localized flooding today across the east coast
metro areas. The Weather Prediction Center is carrying a marginal
risk for excessive rainfall again today.
As we move into Thursday, we will start to see a pattern change as
the upper level shortwave advects into an amplifying low off the
New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts. With this entire troughing
pattern shifting offshore, low level flow across South Florida
will shift to a north to northeasterly direction and a frontal
boundary will start approaching from the southern end of the
trough base. Additionally, an upper level ridge will spill across
the Southeast US. In return, this upper level high pressure
influence and drier air filtering in is expected to cause a
decrease in PoPs for Thursday, especially near the lake region
where PWATs fall back somewhat closer to average (~1.7-1.9
inches). Thus, PoPs fall to 30- 50% across the lake region and
most of Southwest Florida while remaining 60-70% across Southeast
Florida. With less widespread rain likely on Thursday and a high
pressure influence, not expecting localized flooding to be a
concern for Thursday.
High temperatures through mid-week will range from the upper 80s to
near 90 with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s for most areas.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 122 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026
For the end of the week and through this weekend, a frontal boundary
will push southwards in tandem with the upper level trough
strengthening off the Atlantic coast and the front will eventually
settle over far southern Florida or the Florida Straits this
weekend. As the front stalls, much drier air will advect into
Central Florida, with some of it expected to push into portions of
our region, mainly the lake region. Near the lake and perhaps parts
of northern Broward/Hendry, PWATs have potential to fall to 1.2-1.4
inches, which would be well below average. For far southern Florida,
these values could still fall to 1.6-1.8 inches, which is around
average for this time of year. With this anticipation of less
moisture available and a thicker dry layer in the mid levels
identified on model soundings, shower and thunderstorm coverage is
expected to decrease for all areas. Lowest PoPs are forecast for the
lake region where the driest air will be located, with higher PoPs
further south. This is reflected with PoPs under 10-20% this weekend
near the lake and 30-50% for the southern half of the forecast area.
Dew points are projected to fall into the upper 60s for most areas
across the region with this frontal passage this weekend, but it
will still feel rather muggy outside.
Daily high temperatures each day will continue to reach the upper
80s to near 90 each day with overnight lows mostly in the low to mid
70s. However, areas near the lake could see temperatures drop into
the mid to upper 60s for several nights beginning Friday night.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 148 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026
E/NE flow will persist across eastern terminals this afternoon into
the evening. Uncertainty is high concerning shower/storm potential
going into the evening as breaks in the cloud cover could allow for
some modest heating and VCTS in future amendments. A frontal
passage will also add to the uncertainty concerning the timing of
the overnight wind shift from primarily E/NE to NW for eastern TAF
sites tomorrow morning. At APF, breaks in cloud cover could allow
for a brief Gulf breeze this afternoon before a NE flow takes
over around 20z, with scattered VCTS possible into the early
evening. Light and variable winds will return into the overnight
hours for all terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026
A gentle southerly flow is expected across the local waters again
today. These winds will then shift out of the north for the end of
the week, primarily out of the northeast. However, a brief period of
northwesterly winds is possible across the Atlantic late this week.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop each
day, producing locally hazardous winds and seas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 76 89 76 88 / 30 40 20 50
West Kendall 75 89 75 89 / 20 40 20 50
Opa-Locka 76 89 75 89 / 30 40 20 40
Homestead 75 90 74 89 / 30 40 20 60
Fort Lauderdale 76 88 75 88 / 40 40 20 30
N Ft Lauderdale 76 89 76 88 / 30 40 10 30
Pembroke Pines 75 88 75 88 / 30 40 20 40
West Palm Beach 76 89 76 87 / 20 40 20 20
Boca Raton 75 88 75 87 / 30 40 20 20
Naples 74 90 73 89 / 20 20 20 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION....DPB/AEG
UPDATE...DPB
NWS MFL Office Area Forecast Discussion