426
FXUS62 KMFL 090538
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
138 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 135 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected in the afternoon,
focused over the interior and Southwest Florida.
- Persistent easterly winds will maintain an elevated Rip Current
risk along the Atlantic beaches to close out the weekend.
- A Heat Advisory is in effect from late morning into the early
evening for the Dade/Broward metro area. A Moderate HeatRisk
is expected across the eastern half of South Florida and
western Collier County today.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026
Deep-layered high pressure centered over the Atlantic will continue
to hold influence over Florida with the ridge extending into the
eastern Gulf in the wake of an inverted trough. This will keep a
light easterly to southeasterly surface wind flow over the area to
close out the weekend and kick off the work week. The Gulf sea
breeze will likely develop and advance inland each day allowing for
a convective focus zone over portions of Southwest Florida and
inland South Florida.
Temperatures will continue to be on the warm side with highs
reaching the lower to mid 90s each day. Maximum heat index values
will range from the lower 100s to the lower 110s, depending on the
area. Accordingly, a Heat Advisory will be in effect from mid-
morning into the early evening for the Miami-Dade and Broward metro
area. Will allow the next shift to monitor the morning warm up in
case this needs to be expanded to additional areas. Experimental
Probabilistic HeatRisk depicts a substantial 50+ percent swath of
the Dade/Broward western suburbs and central urban heat island away
from the immediate coast with major HeatRisk today and Monday.
Similar is the case for portions of Collier County as well.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026
A drier Saharan Air Layer moves in Tuesday into Wednesday as the
ridge axis slides a bit further north along the peninsula of
Florida. This will allow for the easterly to southeasterly wind flow
to persist while the lower relative atmospheric moisture will
provide lower convective coverage focused inland in the afternoons.
The dry air will linger until late in the week when the next burst
of tropical moisture begins to arrive from the Bahamas and Greater
Antilles Friday into Saturday to close out the week. This moisture
will allow convective activity to trend closer to seasonal norms
based on the current forecast guidance.
Given the relative decrease in showers and storms forecast for a
good portion of the long term forecast period, temperatures will
begin a warming trend with lower to mid 90s becoming the story
across much of the area. Triple digit heat index values are forecast
and the potential for Heat Advisories will need to be monitored day-
to-day, particularly over the urbanized areas.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026
Generally VFR though some morning showers will transition westward
into afternoon/early evening thunderstorms focused along the Gulf
coast near APF. Easterly to southeasterly winds will prevail except
for the Gulf breeze turning APF westerly to southwesterly in the
afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026
Gentle to moderate east-southeasterly winds will persist across the
local coastal waters through the next few days. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms remain possible each day, which may result
in locally gusty winds and brief periods of rough seas. Outside of
convection, seas will generally remain 2 to 3 feet.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026
Persistent easterly to southeasterly wind flow will create another
elevated rip current risk today along the Atlantic beaches. The rip
current risk may remain elevated through a good portion of the week
along the Atlantic beaches.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 91 82 92 81 / 20 10 20 0
West Kendall 92 80 92 78 / 20 10 20 0
Opa-Locka 93 82 93 80 / 20 10 20 0
Homestead 92 80 92 80 / 20 10 10 0
Fort Lauderdale 91 82 91 80 / 20 10 20 0
N Ft Lauderdale 91 81 91 81 / 20 10 20 0
Pembroke Pines 91 81 92 81 / 20 10 20 0
West Palm Beach 91 80 92 79 / 20 10 20 0
Boca Raton 90 81 90 80 / 20 10 20 0
Naples 92 77 93 78 / 70 20 40 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening
for FLZ072-074-172-173.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....RAG
AVIATION...RAG
NWS MFL Office Area Forecast Discussion