654
FXUS62 KMFL 061953
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
253 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2024
...New LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1235 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2024
As mid-level troughing continues to traverse the Great Lakes and NE
CONUS regions and surface high pressure continues to be present
across the SE states, a cold front will work its way south into the
Florida Peninsula and wash out as it approaches. Nevertheless, while
overall moisture will be lacking, there could be just enough shallow
moisture that any lift created by the front could spawn a couple of
isolated showers likely near the Lake Okeechobee region. These
chances are still rather low as the front will be in a weakening
state and there is no other easily identifiable lifting force that
would have enough energy to produce showers. As a result, current
HREF guidance only gives about a 10-20% for any rain and the highest
chances are forecast for Glades and Hendry counties west of the
lake. Winds will be light and variable for most of the day before
increasing out of the north as the front approaches.
After the boundary passes today into tonight, the surface high
pressure currently over the SE states will expand and reinforce the
dry air mass we have seen over the last couple weeks. Additionally,
the expanding high will increase the pressure gradient as the high
interacts with surface low pressure in the western Gulf of Mexico.
Thus, winds will veer from the north to the northeast/east-northeast
once the front passes and also increase to breezy levels. High
temperatures will be in the upper 70s to low 80s across South
Florida today and mid to upper 70s on Saturday even with the frontal
passage since it will be a weaker passage and the easterly
component will moderate the air.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 214 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2024
Mid level ridging will build over the region for the second half
of the weekend and it will continue to influence the weather
pattern as it expands eastward during the early portion of the
week. At the surface, a large area of high pressure centered over
the Southeast as well as the Florida Peninsula during the second
half of the weekend will gradually shift into the western Atlantic
early next week. This will allow for the dry conditions to
continue across South Florida through the early portion of the
week. As surface high pressure shifts into the western Atlantic,
east northeasterly winds on Sunday will gradually veer and become
southeasterly during the early portion of the week. This will
allow for a moderating trend in temperatures to continue during
this time frame. High temperatures on Sunday will generally rise
into the upper 70s across most areas. By Tuesday, high
temperatures will rise into the lower 80s across the east coast
metro areas, and potentially into the mid 80s across interior
portions of Southwest Florida.
As the middle of the week approaches, the mid level ridge will
continue to move into the Atlantic and flatten in response to a
deepening mid level trough pushing eastward from the Plains. At
the surface, an area of low pressure will push into the Northeast
and Mid-Atlantic states during this time frame. The cold front
associated with this system will extend southwestward and into
Northern and Central Florida by Wednesday. This will cause the
winds to veer and become south southwesterly out ahead of the
front on Wednesday which will cause high temperatures to
generally rise into the lower 80s across most areas. Uncertainty
still remains high for this part of the forecast as guidance
continues to remain in disagreement in regards to the intensity of
the front as it pushes through. However, guidance is starting to
come into agreement with the timing of this feature pushing it
through sometime on Wednesday night into early Thursday. With
moisture advection taking place throughout the day on Wednesday,
some shower activity may be possible right out ahead of the front
as it pushes through. This will continue to be monitored as the
week progresses.
Behind the front, as high pressure builds into the region, cooler
temperatures look to push into South Florida for the latter
portion of the week as winds shift and become northerly. It
remains uncertain in regards to the exact details on how cold it
will get during this time frame as it will depend on how long the
northerly winds last and how much cold air advection will be
taking place. This will continue to be monitored as the week
progresses.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2024
VFR will prevail for the TAF period. Winds will remain mostly
light for this afternoon until the front arrives where winds shift
out of the north later this evening and tonight around 5-10 kts.
Expecting winds to veer more NE later tomorrow morning and
afternoon as well as increase to 10 kts with gusts 15-20 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1235 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2024
Light and variable winds will persist most of today before winds
shift and increase out of the north as a cold front moves through
the region during the latter half of the day. Breezy winds will
continue across both the Atlantic and Gulf waters through the end of
the weekend, resulting in cautionary conditions.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1235 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2024
A moderate risk of rip currents will persist across the Palm Beaches
today. With winds increasing behind a cold front, the rip current
risk will increase across all of the Atlantic beaches of South
Florida this weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 62 77 63 77 / 10 0 0 0
West Kendall 58 78 58 78 / 0 0 0 0
Opa-Locka 60 77 61 78 / 10 0 0 0
Homestead 60 78 62 77 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Lauderdale 62 75 64 75 / 10 10 0 0
N Ft Lauderdale 62 76 63 76 / 10 0 0 0
Pembroke Pines 61 79 62 79 / 10 0 0 0
West Palm Beach 60 75 61 76 / 10 0 0 0
Boca Raton 61 77 63 77 / 10 10 0 0
Naples 54 75 55 77 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...Redman
NWS MFL Office Area Forecast Discussion