375
FXUS62 KMFL 081737
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1237 PM EST Sun Nov 8 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1231 PM EST Sun Nov 8 2026
- Drier conditions will push across most of South Florida
through the rest of the weekend and into early this week.
- Minor coastal flooding will continue around periods of high
tide through the rest of the weekend and into Monday morning.
- Chances of showers will increase during the second half of the
week as a stronger cold front approaches and moves through the
region. Behind the front, the coolest airmass of the season
so far could push over the region by next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 201 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026
While mid level zonal flow will continue across the region today,
weak mid level ridging will gradually start to move over the area
from the Gulf as Monday progresses. At the surface, a weakening
frontal boundary will eventually stall out just to the south of
the region today before gradually washing out tonight into
Monday. At the same time, high pressure centered to the northwest
will gradually build into the region behind the front today
through Monday. With plenty of subsidence occurring behind the
frontal boundary throughout the atmospheric column, this will
allow for PWATs to lower as they will generally range between 1.1
and 1.3 inches across most areas today into Monday. The only
exception to this will be over the extreme southern area of the
peninsula which will be closer to the front where PWAT values
will be slightly higher. The drier air mass will help to keep
mostly dry conditions in place through the rest of the weekend
and into Monday, with the only exception being a very low chance
of a passing shower or two over the extreme southern areas closer
to the front. Any shower that would develop during this time frame
would be low topped and short lived. High temperatures today and
Monday will generally rise into the lower to mid 80s, however,
some locations south of Alligator Alley could rise into the upper
80s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 201 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026
Weak mid level ridging remains in place across the region heading
into Tuesday while surface high pressure to the north gradually
shifts eastward. Heading into the middle of the week, the mid level
ridging will gradually start to give way to a mid level trough as a
shortwave impulse passes off to the north of the region. At the
surface, high pressure will gradually weaken over the area on
Wednesday as it pulls away to the northeast. While most of Tuesday
will remain on the drier side, some moisture advection will take
place on Wednesday as the mid level wind flow becomes more
southwesterly. This additional moisture moving into the region
may be enough to introduce a low end chance of showers during the
afternoon when instability will be maximized due to peak diurnal
heating. High temperatures both on Tuesday and Wednesday will
generally rise into the lower to mid 80s across most areas. Some
locations south of Alligator Alley in Southwest Florida may see
highs in the upper 80s each day.
Moving into the second portion of the week, the weather pattern
across the region will change as mid level troughing will rapidly
amplify over the Eastern Seaboard during this time frame. At the
surface, a developing area of low pressure will push eastward from
the Midwest into the Mid-Atlantic states and then eventually off the
Northeastern coastline during this time frame. The frontal boundary
associated with this system will gradually approach and move through
South Florida during the end of the week timeframe. Uncertainty
still remains rather high in this part of the forecast as the
global and ensemble guidance suite is still in disagreement in
regards to the timing of this frontal passage across the region.
The ECMWF suite continues to show a more progressive and faster
frontal passage while the GFS solutions do show a slower passage
through the area. While the exact details still need to be worked
out over the next several days, it does look like chances of
showers will increase heading into the Thursday and Friday
timeframe across South Florida as the front pushes through. While
thunderstorm chances look to be on the lower end at this point due
to the best dynamics and instability remaining off to the north
of the region, this will need to continue to be monitored to make
sure these trends continue.
Behind the front, strong high pressure will build back into the
region from the northwest causing winds to shift and increase
rapidly out of the west northwest as cold air advection takes
over. While uncertainty may remain high in regards to the timing
of the frontal passage during the end of the week, trends are
pointing towards below normal temperatures and much drier
conditions heading into next weekend. This will continue to be
monitored as the week progresses.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM EST Sun Nov 8 2026
A few showers will be possible across the southern extent of South
Florida this afternoon and evening. SHRA chances remain too low to
include VCSH at this time. Winds will remain NErly at east coast
terminals and NWrly at KAPF before winds become light and variable
overnight.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 201 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026
A gentle to moderate northeasterly breeze will develop across most
of the local waters through Monday. The exception to this will be
across the Gulf waters, where winds may become north northwesterly
each afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Seas across the Atlantic
waters will generally remain at 1 to 3 feet through Monday while
seas across the Gulf waters remain at 2 feet or less during this
time frame. Some isolated shower activity cannot be ruled out across
the southern Atlantic waters through Monday.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 201 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026
A moderate risk of rip currents will remain in place across the Palm
Beaches through the rest of the weekend and into the early portion
of the week. Minor coastal flooding will also remain possible
along the east coast during each high tide cycle through the rest
of the weekend and into early Monday morning due to the King Tides
associated with the upcoming new moon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 73 84 73 84 / 0 10 10 0
West Kendall 72 85 72 84 / 10 10 10 10
Opa-Locka 72 85 72 85 / 0 10 10 0
Homestead 73 84 74 84 / 10 10 10 0
Fort Lauderdale 72 83 73 82 / 0 0 10 0
N Ft Lauderdale 71 83 72 83 / 0 0 0 0
Pembroke Pines 71 86 72 85 / 0 10 10 0
West Palm Beach 69 84 71 83 / 0 0 0 0
Boca Raton 71 83 72 82 / 0 0 0 0
Naples 69 85 70 85 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...Hadi
NWS MFL Office Area Forecast Discussion