786
FXUS62 KMFL 070650
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
250 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 220 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026
- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop
across the region today and Thursday as a frontal boundary
remains stalled out just to the north.
- High rainfall rates combined with the possibility of multiple
rounds of heavy downpours could increase the potential of
localized flooding especially over the east coast metro areas.
- Minor coastal flooding will be possible across the coastal
areas during each high tide cycle during the second half of the
week and into the upcoming weekend due to the next round of
King Tides.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 220 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026
A broad mid level trough extending into the Southeast portion of the
country and into the northern Gulf today will gradually begin to
slide into the western Atlantic tonight into Thursday. This trough
will continue to keep mid level ridging to the east of the region
in the Atlantic today, however, the western periphery of this
ridge will slowly start to build towards South Florida tonight
into Thursday. At the surface, a weakening frontal boundary will
remain stalled out just to the north of the region throughout
today and into a good portion of Thursday. At the same time,
Tropical Depression Nine will continue to get better organized in
the Southwestern Gulf as it slowly move east northeastward today
into Thursday.
The stalled out frontal boundary to the north will allow for deep
layer moisture to pool over South Florida throughout today as a
south to southwesterly wind flow sets up across the region during
this time frame. This will allow for PWAT values to range from
around 2.1 inches across the extreme southern portion of the
region to 2.4 inches across the Lake Okeechobee region and Palm
Beach County which will be closer to the front. With an abundance
of moisture in place, showers and thunderstorms will gradually
develop across the region today and they become more widespread
heading into the afternoon and evening hours. Since the best
dynamics and instability will be located further up to the
northeast, chances for strong thunderstorm development will remain
on the lower end, however, they cannot be entirely ruled out
especially across the Lake Okeechobee region. The primary hazard
that will be more concerning with convection today will be heavy
downpours with high rainfall rates, as well as the potential for
multiple rounds of heavy downpours moving over already saturated
areas. With the enhanced rainfall rates, it would not be out of
the question that stronger thunderstorms could drop a quick and
localized 2-3 inches of rain over a short period of time this
afternoon and this evening. This type of rainfall could create the
potential for localized flooding, especially across the Lake
Okeechobee region and east coast metro areas with the steering
flow remaining light out of the south southwest.
Similar conditions are anticipated on Thursday across the region as
the weakening frontal boundary remains stalled out over Central
Florida for a good portion of the day which will keep the south to
southwesterly wind flow in place. This will also keep the east
coast sea breeze pinned over the metro areas along with ample
deep layer moisture in place through most of the day for higher
end chances of showers and thunderstorms. The combination of slow
storm motion along with high rainfall rates will allow for
localized flooding to remain possible especially across the Lake
Okeechobee region as well as the east coast metro areas on
Thursday. High temperatures will generally remain in the upper
80s to around 90 across most of the region for both today and
Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 220 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026
Heading into Friday and the upcoming weekend, mid level ridging over
the western Atlantic will gradually strengthen as it pushes westward
and continues to build over South Florida. At the surface, what is
currently Tropical Depression Nine will continue to strengthen as
it turns and moves northward towards the northern Gulf Coast
Friday into Saturday. While this system will remain far off to the
northwest and will not have any direct impacts on South Florida,
it will help to lift the frontal boundary that has been stalled
out over South Florida northward beginning on Friday. Winds will
then shift and become southeasterly on Friday, however, they will
gradually increase heading into Friday night and Saturday as the
pressure gradient quickly tightens across the region.
The uncertainty in the forecast rises a bit heading into Friday
and Saturday as the frontal boundary gets lifted off to the north
of the region. Even though this front gets lifted northward, the
enhanced south southeasterly wind flow both at the surface and
aloft could help to drag in some deep layer tropical moisture over
the region from the Carribean Sea. This may keep the chances of
showers and thunderstorms elevated across the region on Friday and
Saturday. While the general motion of showers and thunderstorms
will increase during this time frame, the potential for high
rainfall rates will continue keeping the chances for localized
flooding in place as well. The timing this moisture increase also
plays a role into the uncertainty as some of the guidance is a
bit slower in bringing this area of moisture northward on Friday.
If this slower scenario were to play out, Friday may end up being
more of a typical late rainy season type day with higher chances
of showers and storms being focused over the interior and
Southwest Florida instead of the entire area. In any event, the
main takeaway here is that even though the frontal boundary will
be dragged further to the north, the wet and unsettled pattern may
last into the first part of the weekend due to the increase in
deep layer tropical moisture trying to push over the region. This
will continue to be monitored as the week progresses.
Heading into the second half of the weekend and into early next
week, the guidance remains in relatively good agreement with
showing strong mid level ridging expanding over the Florida
Peninsula and into the Gulf during this time frame. This will
allow for drier conditions to push into the area which will result
in a return to more of a typical late wet season type pattern
across the region as winds begin to decrease and become east
southeasterly. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will still
remain in place, however, they will become more scattered in
nature and they will favor the interior and Southwest Florida
during the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures during
the second half of the weekend and into the early next week could
be above climatological normals due to the strengthening mid
level ridge building into the region.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 220 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026
Winds will remain light across all terminals through 16z today.
These winds will then become SSW and will range between 5 to 10
kts through the afternoon. A shift to the SSE could occur across
the east coast terminals between 17-19z as the sea breeze tries to
push inland. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
develop near the terminals today as a frontal boundary remains
stalled to the north. Periods of MVFR or IFR will be possible in
and around storms along with gusty and erratic winds.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 220 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026
A gentle to moderate south southwesterly breeze will remain in place
across most of the local waters through Thursday. Seas across the
Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less during this time frame,
while seas across the Atlantic waters will build and range between 3
to 5 feet today and Thursday as a northeasterly swell develops.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop across
all local waters each day as a frontal boundary remains stalled out
to the north of the region.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 220 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026
A moderate risk of rip currents will develop across the Palm Beaches
today and this risk could potentially become high on Thursday as a
northeasterly swell continues to develop. Minor coastal flooding
will be possible across the coastal areas during each high tide
cycle heading towards the second half of the week and into the
upcoming weekend. This is due to the next round of King Tides
associated with the upcoming new moon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 90 77 89 78 / 60 40 70 20
West Kendall 89 76 89 77 / 60 30 60 10
Opa-Locka 90 76 89 77 / 70 40 70 20
Homestead 90 76 89 77 / 40 30 40 10
Fort Lauderdale 89 76 88 77 / 70 40 70 20
N Ft Lauderdale 89 76 88 77 / 70 50 70 30
Pembroke Pines 89 76 89 77 / 70 40 70 20
West Palm Beach 89 74 88 75 / 80 60 80 40
Boca Raton 89 75 88 76 / 70 50 80 30
Naples 87 75 87 75 / 70 60 60 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...CWC
NWS MFL Office Area Forecast Discussion