182
FXUS62 KMFL 242354
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
754 PM EDT Mon Mar 24 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1218 PM EDT Mon Mar 24 2025
Surface high over the western Atlantic has begun to break down
today as a cold front drops across the southeastern US. As this
front gradually approaches the GA/FL stateline today, winds
across South Florida will shift from the south/southeast, allowing
for continued moisture return over the area. In fact, the 12z MFL
sounding and ACARS data at KMIA already show PWAT values above 1
inch and slowly increasing. Despite the increase in low-level
moisture, enough dry air will linger aloft to support mostly
sunny, warm and dry conditions across the region today.
Temperatures will rise to the low-mid 80s across the East Coast,
and up into the upper 80s over southwest FL.
Although the surface front is forecast to remain stalled over
portions of southern GE/northern FL on Tuesday, a mid-level
shortwave could push southward over the region, bringing back much
needed chances for rainfall. As of this forecast cycle, there
still remains some model discrepancies regarding the timing for
this solution, but the more likely scenarios point towards
isolated to scattered showers pushing through the region on
Tuesday evening, with some potential remnants Tuesday overnight
into Wednesday. Model QPFs don`t look super exciting, with maybe
half an inch to an inch of rain at best, although HREF 24 hour
LPMM does hint at some bullseye areas with a couple of inches
possible.
Temperatures on Tuesday will remain on the upper end of the 80s
once again as southerly flow persist with the front north of our
area.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 355 PM EDT Mon Mar 24 2025
The front will remain just south of the area on Wednesday which could
support additional isolated to scattered showers during Wednesday
afternoon although POPs will remain only around 20-30% at this time.
Ensemble means also remain consistent in keeping forecast QPF on the
conservative side, with totals still around half an inch or less
for the Tue/Wed timeframe, and maybe even less over SW FL. High
pressure quickly builds across the Southeast towards the end of
the week bringing a drier air mass across South Florida and this
feature will slide eastward into the western Atlantic through the
end of the week.
South Florida remains along the periphery of the high heading
into the weekend which should maintain northeasterly to easterly
flow for the end of the week through the upcoming weekend. PWATs
remain meager at around an inch or less through the weekend but
there could be enough low level moisture for quick isolated coastal
showers on Saturday and Sunday.
Afternoon highs will likely remain in the low-mid 80s through much of
South Florida each day, with coastal Collier potentially experiencing
slightly higher temps in the upper 80s during the easterly regime.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 752 PM EDT Mon Mar 24 2025
VFR conditions will prevail overnight with light and variable
winds. SHRA/TSRA will be possible along the east coast of South
Florida after 19z tomorrow, thus have maintained VCTS for east
coast terminals. Winds will remain fairly light but may become
erratic and gusty in and around shower and thunderstorm activity.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1218 PM EDT Mon Mar 24 2025
High pressure will remain in control of the area today,
then a weak shortwave will pass through the waters on Tuesday,
bringing slight chances of showers (30-40 percent chance). High
pressure builds back in north of the Gulf Wednesday through the
rest of the week, keeping rain chances near zero. Winds and seas
will remain less than headline criteria through Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 70 85 68 84 / 0 40 20 30
West Kendall 66 88 64 87 / 0 40 20 40
Opa-Locka 68 87 66 85 / 0 40 20 30
Homestead 68 85 66 84 / 0 30 20 30
Fort Lauderdale 69 83 67 82 / 0 40 30 30
N Ft Lauderdale 69 84 67 82 / 10 40 30 30
Pembroke Pines 70 88 67 87 / 0 40 20 30
West Palm Beach 68 83 65 82 / 10 40 30 20
Boca Raton 68 85 66 82 / 10 50 30 30
Naples 67 82 64 82 / 10 20 10 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...Hadi
NWS MFL Office Area Forecast Discussion